Jill On Money: Bond market forces Trump to blink

It has been a period of time just weeks if you can believe it since President Donald Trump displayed his posterboard tariff plan in the Rose Garden on April Financial markets have been roiled trading partners have volleyed back tariffs of their own and one week after the original announcement the president backed down from particular of the more extreme tariffs that he had originally laid out Related Articles Here s what happens if you don t file your taxes A fifth of Americans are on Medicaid Certain of them have no idea A multitude of Bay Area taxpayers might get a refund from Uncle Sam Jill On Money Trump tariffs More than a little disturbance Can California s largest retirement system handle Trump s tariff turmoil Although much attention was placed on the stock area gyrations it was the bond region that caused Trump to blink As a reminder a bond purchase is essentially a loan to an entity which can be a ruling body a state a municipality or a company The loan is established for a predetermined period at a fixed rate of interest Borrowers are on the hook for interest payments either at periodic intervals usually every six months or at the end of the agreement when they are required to repay the obligation in full Of all the bonds available those issued by the U S ruling body are seen as the safest because it has generally been unthinkable to consider that the U S regime would not repay its obligations Typically in moments of stock sector frenzy or when recession fears spike investors will sell risky assets like stocks and pile into the safety and defense of U S regime bonds In fact this is what happened in the two days after the reciprocal tariffs were disclosed Prices jumped and the yield on the -year treasury dropped below percent a level not seen since last October The global financial system relies on a well-functioning U S bond realm but from April to April the bond territory manifested signs of extreme stress All of a sudden investors were selling establishment bonds pushing long-term interest rates higher Economic historian Adam Tooze points out that the bond sell-off was amongst the largest ever seen the largest since There were likely a limited reasons for the reversal including that a few investors were selling bonds to cover stock territory losses hedge funds were unwinding complicated strategies that moved against them and foreign investors were selling in response to the start of the tariff war Nobel-prize winning economist Paul Krugman declared the Trump tariffs have disrupted the plumbing of the financial system leading to soaring interest rates on U S regime debt Trump executives who cavalierly discounted the initial sell-off in the stock region were forced to acknowledge that the much larger bond field reaction was flashing a big warning sign that read STAND DOWN ON TARIFFS and that s exactly what Trump did when he blinked and broadcasted the -day pause on April Even so tariff levels remain steep According to analysis from the Budget Lab at Yale University the U S effective tariff rate level is the highest since Tariffs are likely to slow down upsurge increase prices and lower profits which is why recession calls are increasing Whether or not we get there hinges on the ultimate level of tariffs and how long they remain in place One big hurdle will be both consumer and business confidence both of which have taken a nosedive in the past few days On April the University of Michigan broadcasted that its Consumer Sentiment Index had sunk to a level that is weaker than it was during the Financial Situation As we have learned over the past two weeks sentiment can shift on a dime plunging markets into chaos or propelling them higher That s a good reason to hold steady and avoid making any changes in your retirement or resources accounts unless you need the money within the next - months Related Articles More than affordable homes are eyed for San Jose retail property This is irreplaceable Locals fight to save historic East Bay theater from demolition Molten material from idle Southern California Edison tower triggered Eaton fire attorney alleges Medi-Cal under threat Who s covered and what could be cut Can tax credits save California s film and TV industry Here s what legislators have proposed Jill Schlesinger CFP is a CBS News business analyst A former options trader and CIO of an stake advisory firm she welcomes comments and questions at askjill jillonmoney com Check her website at www jillonmoney com